Tram cong nghe AI
The Anthropic IPO is heading toward a potential $2 trillion market cap on the Nasdaq, but one independent research firm thinks the company is worth only $150 billion. In a report released on Tuesday, October 6, 2026, New Constructs called Anthropic’s upcoming offering the “most ridiculous IPO of 2026” and warned of an “unprecedented test of investor gullibility,” as reported by CNBC. The call rests on reported losses, open-source competition and a risk Anthropic itself talks about.
Key Takeaways
- The gap: Anthropic is moving toward a potential $2 trillion valuation; New Constructs values it at $150 billion.
- Reported financials: Anthropic’s 2025 revenue was $4.6 billion with a net loss of $42 billion, according to Reuters, which cited a leaked copy of the prospectus.
- Growth claims: Anthropic said in late July that its annualized revenue run rate rose sevenfold year over year to $65 billion.
- The bar: New Constructs estimates Anthropic would need double Nvidia’s trailing-year profit (over $190 billion) to justify its desired valuation.
- Track record: The firm correctly flagged WeWork in 2019, but wrongly flagged DoorDash in 2020.
- Still unknown: Anthropic has not made its prospectus public, and it did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment.
What Is the Anthropic IPO?
Anthropic, the artificial intelligence company, is preparing an initial public offering (IPO), the first sale of its shares to the public, on the Nasdaq. Reports put its potential market capitalization, the total value of all its shares, at about $2 trillion.
The company has not yet published its prospectus, the official filing (called an S-1 in the US) that discloses a company’s finances to investors. Most of the numbers in circulation come from press reports, including a leaked copy of the prospectus cited by Reuters and reporting by the New York Times.
Anthropic Valuation: $2 Trillion vs. $150 Billion
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Potential market cap on the Nasdaq | about $2 trillion |
| New Constructs’ valuation | $150 billion |
| Profit New Constructs says is needed | double Nvidia’s trailing-year profit |
| Nvidia net income, past four quarters | over $190 billion |
New Constructs’ point is simple: a $2 trillion price tag implies enormous future profits. By its estimate, Anthropic would need to earn about twice what Nvidia, the world’s most valuable tech company, earned over the past year. Nvidia’s net income over the past four quarters topped $190 billion.
Anthropic Revenue and Losses: The Reported Numbers
| Figure | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 revenue | $4.6 billion | Reuters, citing leaked prospectus |
| 2025 net loss | $42 billion | Reuters, citing leaked prospectus |
| Annualized revenue run rate (end of July 2026) | $65 billion, up sevenfold year over year | according to Anthropic’s reported figures |
| Projected annualized revenue by end of 2026 | $100 billion | New York Times report (September) |
An annualized revenue run rate takes recent revenue and projects it over a full year. It shows how fast a company is growing right now, but it is not the same as a full year of booked revenue, and it says nothing about profit.
That is the tension in the Anthropic IPO story. Revenue is growing very quickly, yet the reported 2025 loss was about nine times the reported 2025 revenue.
3 Reasons New Constructs Is Bearish on the Anthropic IPO
1. Mounting operating losses
The reported $42 billion net loss in 2025 is the core of the argument. Combined with the profit bar above, New Constructs concluded: “We don’t think Anthropic has a viable business.”
2. Competition from open-source models
The firm argues that free, open-source AI models undercut companies selling closed models. “Since the arrival of open-source models, it’s been clear that the closed models would struggle to generate profits,” New Constructs wrote.
3. Anthropic’s own warnings about AI risk
The report also points to Anthropic’s statement that AI could pose “a catastrophic or existential risk to humanity” as another reason investors should avoid the IPO.
New Constructs added that, in its view, the IPO’s purpose is not to create wealth for public investors but to give liquidity, a way to cash out, to the company’s Wall Street backers. “While Anthropic offers more to society than WeWork ever did, at a $2 trillion valuation, its IPO presents far bigger risks and is positioned to be a far bigger rip off of U.S. capital markets,” the firm wrote.
New Constructs’ Track Record on “Most Ridiculous IPO” Calls
David Trainer, founder and CEO of New Constructs, is known on Wall Street as a notorious IPO bear. His calls have been both right and wrong:
| Year | Company | Call | What happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | WeWork | “Most ridiculous IPO of 2019” | Valued privately at $47 billion; pulled its IPO six weeks after the report; filed for bankruptcy in 2023 |
| 2020 | DoorDash | “Most ridiculous” IPO of 2020 | Market cap over $60 billion on day one, now $83 billion |
| 2021 | Allbirds | Bearish | Reached $4.1 billion on its first day; this year sold its assets for an estimated $39 million |
Trainer has admitted the firm misses sometimes. “Crazy stuff happens,” he told CNBC in 2021. “I can’t let that bother me. I have to stay true to what I think is right.”
Is the Anthropic IPO Overvalued?
The bear case: reported losses far larger than revenue, open-source competition, and a valuation that implies profits beyond what Nvidia earns today.
What the bear case may miss: Anthropic’s reported growth is steep, with a run rate up sevenfold to $65 billion and reported projections of $100 billion by the end of 2026. And New Constructs has been wrong before, as DoorDash showed.
The big caveat: New Constructs has not seen the actual filing. Its analysis relies on reported and leaked figures. Until Anthropic publishes its prospectus, nobody outside a small group of selected investors can check the full numbers. For readers, the lesson is clear: fast-growing AI revenue does not automatically mean profit.
Anthropic IPO FAQ
What valuation is Anthropic targeting in its IPO?
Reports say Anthropic is moving toward a potential market cap of about $2 trillion on the Nasdaq.
Why did New Constructs call the Anthropic IPO “ridiculous”?
It cites reported heavy losses, competition from open-source models, and Anthropic’s own warnings about AI risk, and it values the company at $150 billion.
How much revenue did Anthropic make in 2025?
According to Reuters, citing a leaked prospectus, Anthropic made $4.6 billion in revenue in 2025 and posted a $42 billion net loss.
Has Anthropic published its IPO prospectus?
No. Anthropic has not made its prospectus public, and it did not respond to CNBC’s request for comment.
Is New Constructs usually right about IPOs?
Not always. It correctly warned about WeWork in 2019, but its 2020 pick, DoorDash, has held up well on the public market.
Sources
Last updated: October 12, 2026
